In 20 years, it is predicted that China will overtake the United States as the largest economy in the world. This statement has instilled fear in Washington and other global powers. The US has remained as the sole hegemonic power ever since the fall of the Soviet Union, and theorists are conflicted on if the rise of China will happen peacefully or not. China’s rise to being a global superpower will not be peaceful due to, the United States' reaction to a more powerful china, the modernization of China's increasingly large military, and the growing concerns within the South China Sea.
The topic of China’s rise is of interest to many International Relations (IR) experts, particularly John Mearsheimer and Joseph Nye. Mearsheimer, a professor at the University of Chicago and dubbed to be the most influential realist of his generation. Nye, a political scientist who co-wrote a book on Neoliberalism and coined the term “Soft Power”. These two hugely influential IR theorists have quite contrasting views on this particular topic, therefore it is fascinating to compare their views coming from very different political ideologies through offensive neorealism and neoliberalism.
Mearsheimer's realist theory
Mearsheimer's beliefs are deeply rooted in offensive neorealism, his view of the political landscape is determined by 5 assumptions: (1) states are key actors in the anarchic system, (2) All states have some offensive military capability and others have a lot, (3) It is impossible to know the intentions of other states with certainty, (4) survival is the principal goal of states, (5) states are rational actors that act strategically in pursuit of their goals. Mearsheimer explains that these assumptions, if true, are what makes powers aggressive and puts their state's security as the top priority.
In addition, the realist believes that the resulting behavior of these assumptions is that states tend to fear each other as they cannot predict the intentions of other powers, therefore they remain cautious. This is why they attempt to maximize the amount of world power they control, in other words, they learn that it is a self-help world.
However, these goals and assumptions are common with all states, yet particularly with global powers, with more influence than others have other objectives as well, these are to become a regional hegemony and dominate their area of the world, similar to the US in the Americas. To keep this hegemonic power, they additionally make sure no other state dominates their region of the world. This outlines Mearsheimers realist beliefs, and how he predicts how China will act with this newfound power.
Nye’s liberalist theory
Nye’s theory is based on Neoliberalism, which is rooted in cooperation instead of conflict. Neoliberalism expresses that cooperation between states is attainable and sustainable. This is due to the fact that societies are not only connected by their international affairs but also through economic trade, transnational corporations, historical ties, and connections across civil society. Neoliberalism advertises that states would not risk any harmful effects to these ties, caused by conflict or competition between states, they believe cooperation and diplomacy are much more effective than military force in reaching a state's goal. In addition, Nye expresses the fact that states need to come together in order to face global issues like pandemics and climate change, he believes there is no room for competition when issues of that importance are still prevalent.
In contrast to Mearsheimers realism, Nye believes that state issues are not placed in a structured Hierarchy, and they frequently change in priority. Therefore, military security is not always the state's number one objective, issues that are economic, political, social or cultural, might be of more importance at a particular time.
Mearsheimers interpretation of Chinas goals
Mearsheimer argues that China will try to replicate the United States' political position by giving its efforts to dominate Asia in the same manner the US dominates the Americas and the Western hemisphere. It will do this by first pushing the United States and other western powers out of Asia and gaining the most amount of control it can in its region. A good example of this, is the South China Sea conflict, and how it is trying to control the Sea like how the US controls the Caribbean. In another method, China is predicted to gain more power by building up its military capability to be able to compete with other large powers like the United States and other European countries, as well as dominate its neighboring countries in terms of military strength and mass. Furthermore, China is also predicted and has been shown to interfere with politics in the west, in the same manner, that the US interferes with Asian political relations
Nyes interpretation of China goals
Nye on the other hand believes China has much more to lose economically if it were engaged in any large conflict. Therefore, it will stay away from the use of its military power, instead of hard power and coercion it will resort to soft power. Nye has deeply analyzed Chinas soft power development and how it has invested quite a lot into global influence. Nye does believe china would like to advocate their communist ideologies to the world through soft power. However, due to Xi Jing pings tendency to prioritize government owned companies instead of private ones, it heavily prevents growth of any company that isn’t aligned with the communist party’s ideology, this forbids them from expanding from China and having a global influence. Not only this, but Nye explains that a huge part of soft power and influence comes from civil society. Therefore, heavy censorship laws on the media that the Chinese population creates, makes it extremely hard for creativity to prosper or even be exported to other countries. This is due to Chinas huge propagation machine that forces the government's ideology into anything that is exposed to the outside world. Nye states that the propaganda is blatantly obvious as well as very ineffective and is a huge limiting factor to its soft power influence.
Mearsheimer on US interference
Mearsheimer proclaims that China and the US will be engaged in an intense security competition that has a potential for war. The US has been one of the most influential regional Hegemonies in history. To achieve such a position, the United States began its path to hegemony in 1783 with a policy of continental expansion, with the primary goal of making the US the most powerful state in the western hemisphere. The Monroe Doctrine was a major part of this expansion, as it involved pushing the European powers out of the Americas, ensuring that they would not return. The US’s Hegemonic status was reached at the end of the 19th century, when it overtook a declining British power. Since reaching this hegemonic power it has played a key part in destroying 4 competitors to its global control, this included Imperial Germany, Imperial Japan, Nazi Germany, and the Soviet Union.
As a result of this, Mearsheimer sees the US play a large role in containing China’s rise. He believes this will be done by a balancing coalition made up of the United States and many Asian countries. According to Mearsheimer’s theory, China's neighboring states should be fearful of its rise, given the amount of power it could have over its political landscape, its top priority of survival is found in working with other powers who appear to have similar goals. The US has many already established ties with South Korea, Japan, Australia, and Taiwan, which sets a very strong start to derail China's goal of becoming a regional Hegemony. Mearsheimer furthermore expresses that China’s reaction to this cooperative attack is likely to be hostile. Furthermore, according to his theory, China will use every one of their resources to maintain their priority of survival. The effects of this could result in some sort of warfare, cold or not.
Nye on US interference
Nye, on the other hand, does not believe the US and China are destined for Cold War or real war at all. He argues that economic trade and social relations will be the factors that block the use of military aggression. He uses the example of the Cold War and how there was no economic trade or relations in place between the Soviet Union and the US, but at the moment, there are 365,000 Chinese students in the US, there is huge economic trade between them, and millions of tourists traveling both ways. The theorist argues that the impact of war on these factors and the economy is much too big of a risk to China and the US. Therefore, Nye believes that they will have a Cooperative rivalry, he doesn’t believe that there won’t be any conflict at all, he just believes aggression will be limited Between the powers. His main reason for these predictions is that cooperation is extremely important between them, as there is no way the world can solve global issues with the two world superpowers on bad terms with each other. He believes that without them working collaboratively, we will never fix issues such as climate change, poverty, hunger and reach financial stability.
Mearsheimer has heavily debated against this argument, as he states that economic trade and social relations have not played a large part int the prevention of aggression before. He uses the example of World war two, where economic trade was still taking place between Nazi Germany and neighboring countries that they were in conflict against. I agree with Mearsheimers thoughts on this as it provides a valid, concise point. As well as I don’t agree with Nye’s point of social relations as I do not believe tourism and foreign exchange students will have a big impact on government decisions, I do believe it will have a strong impact on public opinion yet nothing large enough to prevent the US government from engaging in conflict with a very powerful unpredictable nation wanting to take its place. Nye’s point of global cooperation however, I concur that they do need to collaborate to solve these very pressing issues, yet I do not trust that —this will happen any time soon as China is still the largest importer of oil and burns the most amount of coal compared to other countries. This questions where the government of China puts climate change as a priority.
China's increase in military and the South China Sea
China’s growing military power and the conflict in the South China Sea is proof that an intense security competition has already started. However, it is not Chinas actions directly that have initiated this. According to the pentagon, the Chinese military has 915,000 active troops in its ranks, doubling the United States 486,000, of course population size is different, yet it is still a very alarming number. Furthermore, Xi Jing Ping is investing much more money to armed forces with an increasing defense budget of $209.16 billion, a 6.8% increase from the year prior. This is still much lower than the United States defense budget of around $700 billion. However, Chinas prioritization of its military has caused neighboring countries to perceive China as a threat, therefore countries like Singapore, Japan, Australia, and Taiwan have purchased many weapons from the United States, from nuclear submarines to precision missile systems. Not only that, but the islands set up in the South China Sea is a major concern for neighboring countries as it allows china to not only control the sea, but be closer to the lower South East Asian territory. However, I would like to keep in mind, that these artificial militarized islands is not a peaceful act by China, it should be regarded as aggressive and unnecessary. This falls very closely in line with Mearsheimers predictions and theories of offensive neorealism.
Conclusion
Therefore, China’s rise will not be peaceful as its aggression is formidable by its choice of advancing its military and to manufacture militarized islands in the South China Sea that is a obvious threat to neighboring countries. Furthermore, the US is not friendly to any power that poses a threat to its global influence and hegemonic state. This will lead to a balancing coalition initiated by the US in cooperation with the threatened neighboring countries that will lead to a security competition, then possibly war. This path includes a large amount of aggression and hostility, making Chinas rise anything but peaceful.
Bibliography
Aquilino, John. “China Has Fully Militarized Three Islands in South China Sea, US Admiral Says.” The Guardian, Guardian News and Media, 21 Mar. 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/21/china-has-fully-militarized-three-islands-in-south-china-sea-us-admiral-says. Accessed 3 Nov. 2022.
Buddhavarapu, Ravi. “South China Sea Faces Higher Risk of Conflict as Arms Race Builds up, Says Weapons Expert.” CNBC, CNBC, 28 Apr. 2022, https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/27/south-china-sea-region-at-a-higher-risk-for-conflict-weapons-expert.html. Accessed 5 Nov. 2022.
Callahan, Bill. “Mearsheimer vs. Nye on the Rise of China.” The Diplomat, The Diplomat, 9 July 2015, https://thediplomat.com/2015/07/mearsheimer-vs-nye-on-the-rise-of-china/. Accessed 3 Nov. 2022.
Mearsheimer, John. “John Mearsheimer on Realism and the Rise of China.” YouTube, Michigan Debate, 25 June 2020, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D_Mx_e8t7nU&ab_channel=MichiganDebate. Accessed 4 Nov. 2022.
Munro, André. “John J. Mearsheimer.” Edited by Grace Young and Amy Tikkanen, Encyclopædia Britannica, Encyclopædia Britannica, Inc., 30 Oct. 2014, https://www.britannica.com/biography/John-Mearsheimer#ref1206062. Accessed 6 Nov. 2022.
Nye, Joseph. “Joseph Nye - The Rise of China and Its Implications.” YouTube , Rafael Del Pino, 24 Sept. 2019, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vt2UGuHD3Qk&ab_channel=Fundaci%C3%B3nRafaeldelPino.Accessed 4 Nov. 2022.
Xiaohui, Wang, director. Exclusive Interview: Joseph Nye on US-China Relations and Soft Power. YouTube, YouTube, 11 Jan. 2019, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CmXeXlisTU8. Accessed 6 Nov. 2022.
Yuan, Shawn. “Just How Strong Is the Chinese Military?” Military News | Al Jazeera, Al Jazeera, 29 Oct. 2021, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/10/29/just-how-strong-is-the-chinese-military. Accessed 6 Nov. 2022.
The topic of China’s rise is of interest to many International Relations (IR) experts, particularly John Mearsheimer and Joseph Nye. Mearsheimer, a professor at the University of Chicago and dubbed to be the most influential realist of his generation. Nye, a political scientist who co-wrote a book on Neoliberalism and coined the term “Soft Power”. These two hugely influential IR theorists have quite contrasting views on this particular topic, therefore it is fascinating to compare their views coming from very different political ideologies through offensive neorealism and neoliberalism.
Mearsheimer's realist theory
Mearsheimer's beliefs are deeply rooted in offensive neorealism, his view of the political landscape is determined by 5 assumptions: (1) states are key actors in the anarchic system, (2) All states have some offensive military capability and others have a lot, (3) It is impossible to know the intentions of other states with certainty, (4) survival is the principal goal of states, (5) states are rational actors that act strategically in pursuit of their goals. Mearsheimer explains that these assumptions, if true, are what makes powers aggressive and puts their state's security as the top priority.
In addition, the realist believes that the resulting behavior of these assumptions is that states tend to fear each other as they cannot predict the intentions of other powers, therefore they remain cautious. This is why they attempt to maximize the amount of world power they control, in other words, they learn that it is a self-help world.
However, these goals and assumptions are common with all states, yet particularly with global powers, with more influence than others have other objectives as well, these are to become a regional hegemony and dominate their area of the world, similar to the US in the Americas. To keep this hegemonic power, they additionally make sure no other state dominates their region of the world. This outlines Mearsheimers realist beliefs, and how he predicts how China will act with this newfound power.
Nye’s liberalist theory
Nye’s theory is based on Neoliberalism, which is rooted in cooperation instead of conflict. Neoliberalism expresses that cooperation between states is attainable and sustainable. This is due to the fact that societies are not only connected by their international affairs but also through economic trade, transnational corporations, historical ties, and connections across civil society. Neoliberalism advertises that states would not risk any harmful effects to these ties, caused by conflict or competition between states, they believe cooperation and diplomacy are much more effective than military force in reaching a state's goal. In addition, Nye expresses the fact that states need to come together in order to face global issues like pandemics and climate change, he believes there is no room for competition when issues of that importance are still prevalent.
In contrast to Mearsheimers realism, Nye believes that state issues are not placed in a structured Hierarchy, and they frequently change in priority. Therefore, military security is not always the state's number one objective, issues that are economic, political, social or cultural, might be of more importance at a particular time.
Mearsheimers interpretation of Chinas goals
Mearsheimer argues that China will try to replicate the United States' political position by giving its efforts to dominate Asia in the same manner the US dominates the Americas and the Western hemisphere. It will do this by first pushing the United States and other western powers out of Asia and gaining the most amount of control it can in its region. A good example of this, is the South China Sea conflict, and how it is trying to control the Sea like how the US controls the Caribbean. In another method, China is predicted to gain more power by building up its military capability to be able to compete with other large powers like the United States and other European countries, as well as dominate its neighboring countries in terms of military strength and mass. Furthermore, China is also predicted and has been shown to interfere with politics in the west, in the same manner, that the US interferes with Asian political relations
Nyes interpretation of China goals
Nye on the other hand believes China has much more to lose economically if it were engaged in any large conflict. Therefore, it will stay away from the use of its military power, instead of hard power and coercion it will resort to soft power. Nye has deeply analyzed Chinas soft power development and how it has invested quite a lot into global influence. Nye does believe china would like to advocate their communist ideologies to the world through soft power. However, due to Xi Jing pings tendency to prioritize government owned companies instead of private ones, it heavily prevents growth of any company that isn’t aligned with the communist party’s ideology, this forbids them from expanding from China and having a global influence. Not only this, but Nye explains that a huge part of soft power and influence comes from civil society. Therefore, heavy censorship laws on the media that the Chinese population creates, makes it extremely hard for creativity to prosper or even be exported to other countries. This is due to Chinas huge propagation machine that forces the government's ideology into anything that is exposed to the outside world. Nye states that the propaganda is blatantly obvious as well as very ineffective and is a huge limiting factor to its soft power influence.
Mearsheimer on US interference
Mearsheimer proclaims that China and the US will be engaged in an intense security competition that has a potential for war. The US has been one of the most influential regional Hegemonies in history. To achieve such a position, the United States began its path to hegemony in 1783 with a policy of continental expansion, with the primary goal of making the US the most powerful state in the western hemisphere. The Monroe Doctrine was a major part of this expansion, as it involved pushing the European powers out of the Americas, ensuring that they would not return. The US’s Hegemonic status was reached at the end of the 19th century, when it overtook a declining British power. Since reaching this hegemonic power it has played a key part in destroying 4 competitors to its global control, this included Imperial Germany, Imperial Japan, Nazi Germany, and the Soviet Union.
As a result of this, Mearsheimer sees the US play a large role in containing China’s rise. He believes this will be done by a balancing coalition made up of the United States and many Asian countries. According to Mearsheimer’s theory, China's neighboring states should be fearful of its rise, given the amount of power it could have over its political landscape, its top priority of survival is found in working with other powers who appear to have similar goals. The US has many already established ties with South Korea, Japan, Australia, and Taiwan, which sets a very strong start to derail China's goal of becoming a regional Hegemony. Mearsheimer furthermore expresses that China’s reaction to this cooperative attack is likely to be hostile. Furthermore, according to his theory, China will use every one of their resources to maintain their priority of survival. The effects of this could result in some sort of warfare, cold or not.
Nye on US interference
Nye, on the other hand, does not believe the US and China are destined for Cold War or real war at all. He argues that economic trade and social relations will be the factors that block the use of military aggression. He uses the example of the Cold War and how there was no economic trade or relations in place between the Soviet Union and the US, but at the moment, there are 365,000 Chinese students in the US, there is huge economic trade between them, and millions of tourists traveling both ways. The theorist argues that the impact of war on these factors and the economy is much too big of a risk to China and the US. Therefore, Nye believes that they will have a Cooperative rivalry, he doesn’t believe that there won’t be any conflict at all, he just believes aggression will be limited Between the powers. His main reason for these predictions is that cooperation is extremely important between them, as there is no way the world can solve global issues with the two world superpowers on bad terms with each other. He believes that without them working collaboratively, we will never fix issues such as climate change, poverty, hunger and reach financial stability.
Mearsheimer has heavily debated against this argument, as he states that economic trade and social relations have not played a large part int the prevention of aggression before. He uses the example of World war two, where economic trade was still taking place between Nazi Germany and neighboring countries that they were in conflict against. I agree with Mearsheimers thoughts on this as it provides a valid, concise point. As well as I don’t agree with Nye’s point of social relations as I do not believe tourism and foreign exchange students will have a big impact on government decisions, I do believe it will have a strong impact on public opinion yet nothing large enough to prevent the US government from engaging in conflict with a very powerful unpredictable nation wanting to take its place. Nye’s point of global cooperation however, I concur that they do need to collaborate to solve these very pressing issues, yet I do not trust that —this will happen any time soon as China is still the largest importer of oil and burns the most amount of coal compared to other countries. This questions where the government of China puts climate change as a priority.
China's increase in military and the South China Sea
China’s growing military power and the conflict in the South China Sea is proof that an intense security competition has already started. However, it is not Chinas actions directly that have initiated this. According to the pentagon, the Chinese military has 915,000 active troops in its ranks, doubling the United States 486,000, of course population size is different, yet it is still a very alarming number. Furthermore, Xi Jing Ping is investing much more money to armed forces with an increasing defense budget of $209.16 billion, a 6.8% increase from the year prior. This is still much lower than the United States defense budget of around $700 billion. However, Chinas prioritization of its military has caused neighboring countries to perceive China as a threat, therefore countries like Singapore, Japan, Australia, and Taiwan have purchased many weapons from the United States, from nuclear submarines to precision missile systems. Not only that, but the islands set up in the South China Sea is a major concern for neighboring countries as it allows china to not only control the sea, but be closer to the lower South East Asian territory. However, I would like to keep in mind, that these artificial militarized islands is not a peaceful act by China, it should be regarded as aggressive and unnecessary. This falls very closely in line with Mearsheimers predictions and theories of offensive neorealism.
Conclusion
Therefore, China’s rise will not be peaceful as its aggression is formidable by its choice of advancing its military and to manufacture militarized islands in the South China Sea that is a obvious threat to neighboring countries. Furthermore, the US is not friendly to any power that poses a threat to its global influence and hegemonic state. This will lead to a balancing coalition initiated by the US in cooperation with the threatened neighboring countries that will lead to a security competition, then possibly war. This path includes a large amount of aggression and hostility, making Chinas rise anything but peaceful.
Bibliography
Aquilino, John. “China Has Fully Militarized Three Islands in South China Sea, US Admiral Says.” The Guardian, Guardian News and Media, 21 Mar. 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/21/china-has-fully-militarized-three-islands-in-south-china-sea-us-admiral-says. Accessed 3 Nov. 2022.
Buddhavarapu, Ravi. “South China Sea Faces Higher Risk of Conflict as Arms Race Builds up, Says Weapons Expert.” CNBC, CNBC, 28 Apr. 2022, https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/27/south-china-sea-region-at-a-higher-risk-for-conflict-weapons-expert.html. Accessed 5 Nov. 2022.
Callahan, Bill. “Mearsheimer vs. Nye on the Rise of China.” The Diplomat, The Diplomat, 9 July 2015, https://thediplomat.com/2015/07/mearsheimer-vs-nye-on-the-rise-of-china/. Accessed 3 Nov. 2022.
Mearsheimer, John. “John Mearsheimer on Realism and the Rise of China.” YouTube, Michigan Debate, 25 June 2020, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D_Mx_e8t7nU&ab_channel=MichiganDebate. Accessed 4 Nov. 2022.
Munro, André. “John J. Mearsheimer.” Edited by Grace Young and Amy Tikkanen, Encyclopædia Britannica, Encyclopædia Britannica, Inc., 30 Oct. 2014, https://www.britannica.com/biography/John-Mearsheimer#ref1206062. Accessed 6 Nov. 2022.
Nye, Joseph. “Joseph Nye - The Rise of China and Its Implications.” YouTube , Rafael Del Pino, 24 Sept. 2019, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vt2UGuHD3Qk&ab_channel=Fundaci%C3%B3nRafaeldelPino.Accessed 4 Nov. 2022.
Xiaohui, Wang, director. Exclusive Interview: Joseph Nye on US-China Relations and Soft Power. YouTube, YouTube, 11 Jan. 2019, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CmXeXlisTU8. Accessed 6 Nov. 2022.
Yuan, Shawn. “Just How Strong Is the Chinese Military?” Military News | Al Jazeera, Al Jazeera, 29 Oct. 2021, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/10/29/just-how-strong-is-the-chinese-military. Accessed 6 Nov. 2022.